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Tuesday, 10 October 2006 15:23 |
By Jim Genaro
The United States-led invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan should be seen not as an extension of President Bushës will, but rather as part of an overall tendency of powerful nations seeking to effect change, according to political scientist Glenn Palmer.
Palmer, who is an associate professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, addressed about 80 people Sept. 12 at UNC Ashevilleës Humanities Lecture Hall.
His talk, titled "A Theory of Foreign Policy," was the first of the 2006-07 lecture series of the World Affairs Council of Western North Carolina.
Palmer
argued that the actions of the U.S. can be analyzed in the context of
what he termed the "Two-Good Theory" of global politics. The theory
holds that states can either maintain certain assets or act to change
the world.
"All states are
simultaneously trying to protect some aspects of the status quo that
they like and change some aspects of the status quo that they donët
like," he told the audience.
Weaker states
typically focus on maintaining the status quo, while powerful states ǃÓ
particularly those seeking to expand their power ÇƒÓ are more
change-based, he explained.
"The U.S. should
not be expected to be a maintenance or a status-quo country¨? ÇƒÓ it
should be a changing state," Palmer said. "A very powerful country
getting more powerful is one of the most change-oriented powers there
is."
Maintaining the
status quo requires fewer resources, he added, therefore making it an
easier strategy for poorer, weaker countries.
"Any particular
outcome can be protected from a variety of threats at the same time,"
Palmer told the crowd. For example, he said, the possession of a
nuclear arsenal ÇƒÓ which is intended to maintain or protect a countryës
status ÇƒÓ can dissuade attacks from numerous countries at the same time.
Taking action, however, requires a directed strategy.
"Itës very precise ÇƒÓ it has to be pinpointed," he noted.
Furthermore,
Palmer added, "politics have a status-quo bias to them." It is easier,
he explained, to maintain a law through precedents than to establish an
entirely new precedent.
To demonstrate
his theory, Palmer discussed the actions of the U.S. during the years
following World War II ÇƒÓ a period, he noted, when it was "the most
powerful country weëve seen in the world in the past 500 years."
During the
period, the U.S. engaged in a number of change-based initiatives, he
said, including the Marshall Plan, the formation of various
international alliances, the establishment of international
organizations and pursuit of free-trade regimes.
The Marshall
Plan, particularly, was a vast and sweeping action that gave the U.S.
much more power, Palmer noted, by using foreign aid ÇƒÓ a significant
tool of geopolitical persuasion ÇƒÓ to gain access to the inner workings
of European economies.
"The Marshall
Plan required that governments require their companies to change
accounting policies to allow the U.S. to see how they were running
their businesses," he said. Previously, he added, the inner workings of
foreign companies were "largely opaque" to the U.S.
During the 1970s
and 1980s, as American power began to wane, the country began to engage
in more maintenance-oriented policies, Palmer said. The policy of
containment, reduced foreign aid and establishing better relations with
China and the Soviet Union were all part of the move away from more
change-based politics. Furthermore, increased military spending
reflected this tendancy towards protectionism.
Next, Palmer discussed his theories about where the future of American foreign policy is headed.
He said that the
U.S. is enjoying an unprecedented level of power in the world. While
the U.S. has long had the highest gross domestic product in the world,
he noted that the countryës wealth is rapidly growing when compared to
the combined GDPs of other nations.
In 1985, for
instance, the U.S. GDP was less than the sum of those of the next two
wealthiest nations Palmer said. Today, however, Americaës GDP is larger
than the sum of the next four richest countries in the world.
"This is a unipolar system weëre in, where the most powerful country is getting more powerful," he noted.
Given that
assumption, Palmer said that the U.S. will continue to seek change in
the world. This will include support for "democracy on a worldwide
scale," specific regime changes, expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization, greater support for the World Trade Organization and
increased foreign aid.
He noted that
these policies are not just a reflection of the Bush administrationës
agenda, but rather of American politics for the past two
administrations.
"I donët want
you to misunderstand me as saying ǃÚGeorge Bush is a change-seeking
president,ë" Palmer told the audience. "Well, yes, he is, but so was
Bill Clinton and so will be the next president. This is not a neo-con
thing."
He also said he imagines that military force will continue to be used for specific regime changes ÇƒÓ possibly in Iran.
However, Palmer noted that this tendency will eventually reverse again.
"The U.S. at
some point is going to start declining in relative capability," he
said. "So the one thing I think the U.S. will have to start thinking of
is the anticipated speed at which it will start to decline."
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