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Tuesday, 30 January 2007 14:53 |
By JIM GENARO
China is an ascending world power whose rapid development and rising political and economic influence has far-reaching consequences for the United States and the world at large, according to Dr. Steven Levine and Dr. Sarah-Ann Smith.
The two speakers, who are both specialists in Chinese foreign policy, addressed a forum on China-U.S. relations at UNC Ashevilleës Reuter Center on Jan. 16.
The forum, which was attended by several hundred people, was co-sponsored by the World Affairs Council of Western North Carolina, the Leadership Asheville Forum and the North Carolina Center for Creative Retirement.
Levine,
who is a professor of Chinese history at UNC Chapel Hill, addressed
three main issues: the efficiency of the Chinese government, the likely
ways in which China might evolve in the future and how that evolution
might affect the U.S.
A predominant feature of Chinaës communist government is its stability, he told the assembly.
"Chinese politics, at least in the past 50 years, have been a lot more predictable than our own government," Levine said.
Unlike the U.S.,
where officials are elected, the Chinese leaders, Levine noted, are
"carefully trained, seasoned, put into many different kinds of
situations before they are brought to Beijing" to assume power. By the
time a person has undergone such preparation, the leadership knows he
or she will be "loyal to the vision of the Communist Party," Levine
said. "Although what that vision is these days is something of a
question." About six such people within the party hold the ultimate
decision-making power in the country, he added.
Furthermore,
Chinese leaders are typically much older when they assume power than
U.S. leaders ÇƒÓ and often continue to hold their posts well into their
70s or 80s. Chinese culture, he explained, "values age and experience,
not youth and innovation."
Nonetheless, the
country has seen a tremendous amount of change in the past 25 years,
Levine said. Since the Communist Party began relinquishing some control
of the economy in favor of a more free-market system, China has
experienced economic growth that has "far outstripped the political
dynamics of the system," he added.
This disparity
between the countryës robust economic development and its highly
conservative political system has caused some analysts to predict that
Chinaës government is doomed to implode, Levine said.
However, others
have argued that China "has found the key to success," Levine said,
through what a friend of his termed "resilient authoritarianism."
This means that
the "leadership of the Chinese Communist Party are very smart people
who have done their homework," he explained.
In seeking to
counter possible threats to their rule, the partyës leaders have
recognized problems, employed experts and "stayed one step ahead of the
problem," Levine said.
For instance, a
source of much tension within the country is the tremendous economic
disparity between its rural and urban populations.
In the
countryside, large protests have often erupted over the crushing
poverty that so many farmers there experience ÇƒÓ a situation that has
often been exacerbated by the governmentës practice of taking land away
from them to build new housing developments, he said.
However,
whenever such protests have threatened to spread to other regions, the
government has responded by investing money into the local economies,
"reducing pressure sufficiently so people donët become so angry with
the government that they organize to overthrow it," Levine said.
At the same
time, the Chinese government often employs extreme force to suppress
any uprising it perceives as potentially threatening. Notable examples
of such repression include Chinaës violent suppression of the China
Democratic Party in the 1990s and its ongoing campaign to stamp out
Falun Gong, a quasi-religious exercise group the Communist Party
considers a terrorist organization due to its ability to amass large
groups of people at demonstrations, he said.
Nonetheless, the central government does not wield absolute control ÇƒÓ particularly in the more remote territories, Levine said.
"Policies that
are issued by Beijing are often ignored or back-burnered in provinces
in which the local leadership wants to ignore them," he told the
audience. "China is not one place. China is many places."
Furthermore, at
every level of government, corruption is pervasive, he added, making it
difficult to enforce national laws at the local level.
Turning to the
question of why all of this matters to the U.S., Levine noted that
"China is now ÇƒÓ for real ÇƒÓ a global power. Under Mao, China pretended
to be a global power, but it really wasnët."
Now, however,
its scope in the world, both economically and politically, is vast.
Issues such as the environment, infectious disease and wars "cannot be
solved without China as a willing partner," he added.
After Levine addressed the forum, Smith presented her overview of Chinaës current situation in relation to the U.S.
Smith, a former
foreign service officer with the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong and the
State Department office in Taiwan, began her talk by saying that she
has found Chinaës recent rate of development "absolutely astounding.
China has been more active in the last few years that it was in the
first years of the Peopleës Republic of China."
The most
staggering indication of Chinaës economic prowess is the amount of
foreign reserves it holds ÇƒÓ $3 trillion worth at this point, she said.
"Theyëve got money that they can take to other parts of the world," Smith added.
However, the
Chinese leadership is cautious not to be perceived as a threat, she
said. While the official rhetoric coming from Beijing at first spoke of
Chinaës economic ascent as a "peaceful rise," the party changed its
terminology after some leaders were "concerned about the impression
that ǃÚriseë might give to the rest of the world," Smith told the
audience.
"Peaceful
development" became the new term used by the CCP, she said, because
"they want to communicate that they are not a threat."
Nonetheless,
China is having a dramatic impact on the world through its economic
activities in such far-flung regions as Africa and Latin America.
In Angola, Smith
noted, China is financing reconstruction of the countryës rail system,
which was "destroyed by 27 years of war."
In Botswana, China dominates the construction industry and it has oil partnerships in Sudan, Chad and Nigeria.
All of this
caused one South African official to call Chinese investment "a
tantalizing opportunity and a terrifying threat to South Africa," Smith
said.
African nations
often prefer Chinese investment because, unlike money borrowed from the
World Bank, "there are no strings attached to it ... and there is, of
course, no harping on human rights," Smith said.
China has also
been active in Latin America, she noted, particularly in countries with
"politically left-leaning leaders," such as Brazil and Venezuela.
However, Smith
added, "at this point, someone like (Venezuelan President Hugo) Chavez
is far more socialist than the Chinese leaders are."
In 2004, Venezuela signed a $5 billion oil deal with China that greatly reduced its dependence on U.S. markets, she said.
Such activities
are important to China so that it can secure resources to fuel its
rapid expansion. However, Smith added, it is "equally important for
Chinaës government to assert what it sees as its rightful place in the
world."
Furthermore, in
securing trade deals with other countries, China has furthered what it
considers an important political agenda: recognition of Taiwan as a
part of the Peopleës Republic of China. Chinese investment is
contingent on other states ending their diplomatic recognition of
Taiwan, which is considered by many countries to be an independent
nation, despite Beijingës insistence to the contrary, Smith said.
Meanwhile, the
U.S., distracted by the war in Iraq, has seen its economic influence
decline as Chinaës influence has grown, she said.
"While we have
been so totally focused on such a narrow range of issues, China has
developed a wide array of relationships" with other countries, Smith
added.
Above all, China will act in its own interests, regardless of the desires of the U.S. or the international community, she said.
Smith noted that
while Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said, during a recent visit to
Beijing, that he was surprised to learn of Chinaës opposition to Iran
developing nuclear weapons, "China balked at U.S. opposition" to a
recent deal between a Chinese gas company and Iran.
"Theyëre gonnaë
do their own thing," she explained. "At this point, I donët think they
want to be our enemy or that they want to supplant us. But they will
act with self-interest ÇƒÓ and are perhaps less amenable to U.S. pressure
than a lot of countries."
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