It could take more than five years — or even 10 years — for some sectors of the Ashville Metropolitan Statistical Area economy to recover from the havor wreaked on the region Sept. 27 by Tropical Storm Helene, area workforce expert Nathan Ramsey said on Feb. 7 during a breakfast meeting of the Asheville-based Council of Independent Business Owners in UNC Asheville’s Sherrill Center.

In his presentation to CIBO, Ramsey addressed “The State of the Econoomy.” An estimated 50 people attended.

Ramsey’s program lasted about 45 minutes after which he fielded questions from the audience for about 15 minutes.

Ramsey is director of the Mountain Area Workforce Development Board and executive director of the Land of Sky Regional Council.

A CIBO promotion noted that, among other topics, Ramsey would address questions, such as: “What effect has the storm had on our economy?” and “What is the state of our recovery?”

A second presentation that was scheduled for the Feb. 7 meeting — to have featured “A Buncombe County Tax Appraisal Report” by Eric Cregger, interim Buncombe County property assessor — was postponed until the next CIBO meeting because Cregger was ill.

Following a prayer and a recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance, John Carroll, CIBO past president and program moderator, greeting the attendees, noted evenly: “We had planned to have Eric Cregger, but he has the flu, so we will have him next time.”

Therefore, Carroll said, Ramsey had agreed to expand his presentation  (with a Q&A) for the entire hour.

Carroll then quipped — and, as usual, triggered much laughter from the CIBO crowd — “One of the things about Nathan Ramsey — he can take up the whole time!”

More seriously, Carroll added, “Nathan has been a member of CIBO for many years. He’s a graduate of UNCA... and then he got a law degree from Tennessee— but we won’t hold that against him. His most important accolade was marrying Robin!” 

Ramsey’s wife Robin, who was in attendance, playfully interjected, “That’s right!” as the audience chuckled.

In beginning his presentation, Ramsey said with a smile, “It’s an honor to be here” for a CIBO presentation.

“I was going to talk about the economy in Western North Carolina and where we’re at. But I can’t do that unless we first talk about Hurricane Helene.

“But before that, I’d like to give a little shout-out to Jerry Sternberg,” who recently died. “He did so much for our community” and was a long-time CIBO member.

(Sternberg, an Asheville native — raised on Depot Street — and businessman, Jewish community leader, Mountain Xpress columnist and cowboy-hat wearing amateur historian, died at age 94 on Christmas Day 2024.)

Continuing, Ramsey said, “Helene took a lot of things away from us, but we can’t replace those who died in the storm. I think it’s important that we remember them and their lives.

“So Helene caused about $60 billion in damage in Western North Carolina  — about three times larger than anything that’s ever hit North Carolina....”

He added, “When we started getting more connectivity (after the Sept. 27 storm) and saw that we (WNC) were on the front page of The New York Times and Washington Post” — and  “that is when many in the area got a sense of the magnitude of the damage” wreaked here by Tropical Storm Helene.

Specifically, Ramsey said, “one hundred five people were killed from the storm in North Carolina — and many still are missing....

“Going into the storm, they were predicting it would be more like the 2004 storm. But on a scale of one to 10, that (2004) storm would have been a ‘one’ compared to Helene... Most of the losses were uninsurable....”

In December, the U.S. Congress approved $100 million-plus “in supplemental help, mainly to Western North Carolina,” Ramsey said. 

“Hopefully, we will have a second chance to go to Congress … to get more help...

“The State of North Carolina has committed around $1 billion, to date,” he noted.

N.C. Gov. Josh Stein sought $1,071,728,750 in immediate needs for Western North Carolina, but the North Carolina House (of Representatives) is considering $500 million for immediate needs in WNC, Ramsey noted.

Further, he said that “FEMA has approved $361.6 million for 153,557 households and individuals,” which includes money to help people find temporary housing as they rebuild. (FEMA is the acronym for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.)

He added, “FEMA is very bureaucratic, but they have provided lots of financial help for individuals and businesses” as well.

“One of the misconceptions is that FEMA is here to solve all of our problems....”

Continuing, Ramsey said, “They (FEMA) provided housing … At one time, about 6,000 households. And now it’s around 3,000 households.”

As for other Helene-related problems, he noted that I-40 to the Tennessee line remains closed, causing heavier-than-normal traffic around Asheville, as traffic is detoured.

Also, Ramsey said, $800 million has been earmarked for the Chimney Rock area, which was decimated by the storm.

In speaking historically of the Asheville MSA, comprising the four counties of Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison, he noted that, “pre-Helene,  our population continued to grow in Western North Carolina... From 1880,” when the area’s population was just 50,000, until now, when “we’re just under a half-million people.”

Prior to the storm, Ramsey noted, “We (the Asheville MSA) were projected to grow by about 50,000 (people) by 2050.”

And, “while the economy in our region has continued to grow,” he said, “My uninformed ‘take’ would be that it’s going to take quite a few years to recover from Helelene.”

Ramsey added that the Asheville MSA’s continued growth will happen “as long as people want to visit our area… and I think, fundamentally, the attracton of our area hasn’t changed,” despite the storm’s widespread devastation.

“Around 2002 to 2009, it (the Asheville MSA’s tourism growth) leveled off, with the financial recesssion — and it also leveled off during the pandemic.”

In reviewing statistics, Ramsey said the following about Asheville MSA’s 5.2 percent jobless rate for November:

“Historically, that is very high. Because historically, the Asheville (MSA) area has had the lowest unemployment rate in the state...

“Buncombe was hit hard by the pandemic and then even harder by Helene. A lot of that is because Buncombe has a bigger hospitality sector than other places... So we’re continuing to create jobs and maybe we’re not growing as fast now as we had…. I think Helene has reminded us of how balanced our economy is... So, really, we do have a balanced economy.”

After a pause, Ramsey added, “We recently had a job fair… and we had over 150 employers participate… with one hospitality employer in the mix...

“So one of the strengths of our area, is that our labor force has continued to grow...Our region’s population continues to grow...

“Demographically, we’re all getting older and having fewer babies, so there are as not as many people” available to care for the very young — and the very old.

For December 2024, Ramsey noted, “Buncombe and Madison are at about 6 percent” jobless rates.

Among other December unemployment rates cited in Ramsey’s presentation were Transylvania County, 3.4 percent; Henderson County, 3.6 percent; Haywood County, 3.9 percent; North Carolina (statewide), 3.7 percent; and the United States (nationwide), 4.1 percent.

At that point, Ramsey noted that a number of tourism workers have left — or are leaving — the Asheville MSA because of big issues with the availability of jobs with relatively low pay levels versus hard-to-find and relatively high-cost housing. 

“If we lose them (the tourism workers), will we get them back?” when the area has recovered from Helene? he asked, rhetorically.

On the bright side, he quickly added, “Even with Helene, we’re still above where we were pre-pandemic... A lot of that goes to the resiliency of our area... So, again, our labor force continues to grow.”

He then pointed out that, for the Asheville MSA, the “average hourly earnings... is below the state and federal metric....”

Nonetheless, Ramsey said, “Our wage growth over the past 15-plus years has been strong...

“One ‘takeaway’... oftentimes, it’s shared that ‘wages are lower here because of hospitality jobs’ — and all that...”

To the contrary, Ransey asserted, “About 2 percent of that is the industry mix in our area. If it was the same as statewide, our wages would be higher than the state average. But it (the pay differential) is mostly because our highest-paying jobs pay a lot less than in other North Carolina major metro areas... Places like Charlotte and Atlanta pay a lot more for high-paying jobs.”

Continuing, Ramsey said, “I mentioned housing... Housing has always been a challenge.”

He then asked another rhetorical question, “In years ahead, will our employees be able to to afford to live in these communities?”

Ramsey added that that often is not the case currently, noting, “Right now in Weaverville, their employees mostly live elsewhere because of (high) housing costs.”

In turning to the jobs situation in the Asheville MSA, he said, “Sure, the number of manufacturing jobs has declined in our region in recent decades, but, “actually, we have more manufacturing jobs in the Asheville metro today than we did a decade ago. I think that’s remarkable, especially since losing Evergreen and Continental... We’ll probably never meet the need for health care, with the demographic” challenges.

As for the Asheville MSA’s health care sector, Ramsey said, “the jobs tend to pay very well.”

Sadly, he added, “The jobs that, in many ways are the most important in our society, pay the least — taking care of young children and the elderly...”

Regarding the construction sector, Ramsey said, “We have fewer people working in construction today than we did 15 years ago... The Great Recession was really dramatic for a lot of people in the construction business, with lots going out of business.”

As for the professional business services, he referred to as a “generally a high-paying sector.”

Regarding the issue of wage growth versus housing prices in the region, Ramsey said that “wage growth has not kept up with housing price growth, which is a true statewide and nationwide, too.”

In conclusion, Ramsey reviewed a recent update of the Transporation Improvement Program for the area noting that, among many, road projects being eliminated include Sweeten Creek Road, Swannanoa River Road, Sand Hill Road and certain future I-26 improvements.

“Why” are the projects being eliminated?. Ramsey asked, rhetorically.

In answering his own question, Ramsey cited construction costs’ skyrocketing, along with “revenues (that) have not kept up with expenses” — partially due to a relative decline in gas tax revenues (which funds road projects) because more North Carolina residents are driving gas-saving hybrid and electric vehicles.