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Tuesday, 26 December 2006 15:05 |
By JIM GENARO
If the U.S. does not begin an earnest effort to diversify its energy resources and reduce dependence on foreign oil, it will face an ever-growing threat of terrorism and war in the Middle East, Anne Korin told about 200 people at UNC Ashevilleës Humanities Lecture Hall Dec. 12.
The lecture, which was part of the World Affairs Council of Western North Carolinaës 2006-07 lecture series, was titled "Global Energy Security."
Korin
is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and
editor of Energy Security, as well as chair of the Set America Free
Coalition.
Regarding the
War on Terror, Korin told the audience, "I would submit to you that
this is a very poor name for this war. Did we call World War II a ǃÚWar
on Tanks?ë"
Rather, Korin argued, the U.S. is engaged in a war against Islamic fascism.
"Unfortunately, we are paying for both sides of this war," she added.
By purchasing
oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia, which support Islamic
extremism, the U.S. is helping to fund their opposition in the war, she
explained.
More than 80
percent of the worldës oil reserves are "in countries where radical
Islam is on the rise," Korin said. "You cannot win a war when youëre
paying for both sides."
The U.S., she
noted, accounts for only three percent of the worldës population, but
is responsible for 25 percent of the worldës oil consumption.
"Terrorists realize that ... oil is the Achillesë heel of the West, Korin said. "Weëd better understand that."
She noted that a growing number of terrorist attacks both in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, have targeted oil pipelines.
While most of
these attacks have been relatively small in their impacts on U.S. oil
prices, an attack on one of the larger pipelines in Saudi Arabia could
have devastating effects, she said.
"You could easily send oil prices above $100 per barrel ÇƒÓ maybe even $150 per barrel ÇƒÓ overnight," Korin told the audience.
Furthermore, the U.S. faces growing competition from the developing world for oil resources, she noted.
China and India
alone account for one-third of the worldës population, Korin said,
adding, "And you know what, they donët want to ride bicycles any more.
They want to be like us."
To that end, the
Chinese government has been actively working to secure its energy
sources both by diversifying its supplies of resources and by making
deals with oil-producing nations to secure future access.
This includes
working with countries like Iran and Sudan that the U.S. will not buy
oil from for diplomatic or political reasons.
Korin referred to a Chinese proverb, saying, "If you donët change your course, you might get exactly where youëre headed.
"Resource war is not a place we want to be headed," she added.
One way out of the current dilemma surrounding oil dependency is through the diversification of energy sources, she said.
"We can shift
(oil) from being a crucial commodity to being just another commodity in
a couple of decades," Korin told the audience.
Iran has already
begun such a process, she noted. Though it has vast oil resources, Iran
has long depended on foreign imports of refined petroleum. However, it
has begun a campaign to diminish its dependency on outside resources by
shifting its transportation fleet to natural gas, which does not need
to be refined to be used.
This gives the
country a greater freedom to avoid the scrutiny of the international
community, for whom oil embargoes are a major tool of diplomatic
pressure.
"In five years, Iran will be immune to sanctions," Korin said. "We need to learn from Iran."
While the U.S.
lacks the natural gas resources that Iran has, it does have "enormous
biomass resources," she noted. This potential energy source could be
tapped to produce ethanol, biodiesel and other alternative fuels to a
much greater extent, she noted.
Brazil has begun
such a process, she said, growing sugarcane to produce ethanol ÇƒÓ a much
more efficient way to make the fuel than the traditional corn-based
method.
However, the key
to the fuelës success depends on the auto industry developing and
marketing "flexible-fuel vehicles" ÇƒÓ automobiles that can run on any
combination of gasoline, ethanol and methanol, Korin said.
Furthermore, the
U.S. government needs to abolish the tax it charges on ethanol imports,
she said. At a rate of 54 cents per gallon of ethanol, this tax, if
applied to oil, would amount to $23 per barrel, she explained. If this
tax were abolished, ethanol would be a much more competitively-priced
fuel source.
Another strategy
for energy-independence is to continue the development of electrically
powered vehicles. While the current hybrid automobiles are much more
efficient than standard cars, the next step, plug-in hybrids that can
be charged from the power grid at night, will take a significant leap
in energy efficiency, she said.
"You can have
your SUV and eat it too," she joked. By drawing significantly from
coal-generated electricity ÇƒÓ particularly at night when power plants
are under-utilized ÇƒÓ plug-in hybrids will require much less petroleum,
Korin noted.
"The point is
not to ask people to do with less," she added. "People will do with
less in an emergency ... but most people will not do with less over the
long haul for any reason."
Therefore, she
argued, the government should take steps to encourage technologies that
allow greater efficiency and less oil use without imposing limitations
on consumers.
Otherwise, she said, "we are facing a very serious threat."
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