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Projected 150,000 population jump by 2030 in Asheville area termed a challenge
By JOHN NORTH
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A presentation on“The State of Our Local Economy & Jobs Report†showing area employment gains and looming challenges was given by Nathan Ramsey, a local workforce director, during a Dec. 1 early-morning breakfast meeting of the Asheville-based Council of Business Owners at UNC Asheville’s Sherrill Center.
Between 50 and 60 people attended the one-hour session that opened with a separate presentation on “The Buncombe County Property Revaluation Process†by Keith Miller, who is Buncombe’s tax assessor. (A story on Miller’s presentation begins on Page A3.)
Beginning on a light note, Ramsey, who is director of the Mountain Area Workforce Development Board at Land of Sky Regional Council, triggered some chuckles from the CIBO audience when he quipped, “At Land of Sky, we can’t tax you or regulate you — we’re much more boring — and that’s a good thing!â€
Turning to the discipline of economics, he said that it teaches that “only two things really drive economic activity — population growth and productivity.â€
Further citing basic economic theory, Ramsey said, “So there are two ways to impact productivity — automation...and education.â€
As for education, he said when an institution or individuals “helps people attain more skills, then, generally, they’re more productive.â€
Next, Ramsey said of the Asheville Metropolitan Statistical Area, including the counties of Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison, “We’re approaching 500,000 people — and we’ll be adding 150,000 people†between now and 2030.
“The reality is we live in a regional economy. Those political boundaries, really, don’t mean a lot. The reality is this metro area will be adding the footprint (of the population of) Henderson and Transylvania (counties),†which are 118,106 and 33,355 persons, respectively, based on 2022 estimates, for a total of 151,461 persons.
(“The current metro area population of Asheville in 2023 is 371,000, a 1.37 percent increase from 2022,†according to the website macrotrends.net. “The metro area population of Asheville in 2022 was 366,000, a 1.67 percent increase from 2021. The metro area population of Asheville in 2021 was 360,000, a 1.69 percent increase from 2020.â€)
“Again,†he said, “the Asheville metro continues to lead the state in latest unemployments figures,†with 2.8 percent joblessness (lowest of any metro area in the state), while Buncombe alone was 2.5 percent in September, and Asheville alone was 2.7 percent.
Ramsey also noted that the Asheville metro area has a total labor force of 242,916 persons, a significant increase since a recent pandemic low of 221,787 persons in 2020.
“Given that we lost so many people (recently) at (Pactiv) Evergreen (a 115-year-old paper mill in Canton that closed on June 28), costing the jobs of 1,200 persons, Ramsey said he feels local businesses have done a good job in hiring to help fill the void.
“North Carolina’s maximum unemployment benefit is $350/week,†he said. “So if the average is $280/week, many people don’t even apply (for unemployment benefits) — they just go out and get another job,†as the benefits, alone, are not sufficient to cover their bills.
"Previously, during the pandemic, there was an extra $600 put on top of that (the regular unemployment benefits), and so, many people could make $1,000-a-week (via benefits) without working, so they stayed at home."
Looking back, Ramsey said, “In September 1999, we (the metro area) were at low point of 2.0 percent unemployment - we are not far from that now. It (the jobless rate) got very high during the pandemic†in the Asheville metro area.â€
“One of the takeaways from this morning is... that we’re at record number of people working — and a record number of people in the labor force,†Ramsey stated.
Ramsey added, “We’ve never had more people working (in the Asheville metro area) than right now... Part of that is we’ve never had this size population before...
“We’re also dealing with demographic headwinds. People are retiring, people aren’t having as many children...
“We’re at 20-year highs in the prime age (18-55), we’re at record numbers...
“Even despite the fentanyl crisis, lack of child care, we’ve been at 20-year highs on people working in the labor force.
“Everywhere you go, you see signs saying ‘help wanted.’ So y’all are doing a great job of creating job opportunities.
“Hourly earnings October 2023 — $28.59 — that’s below the state and national average, but it’s pretty good.
“We’re trailing North Carolina a little in median wage growth…
“The people who get the biggest pay raises are the people who change jobs. But fewer people are switching jobs...“You hear a lot of national stories on how the job market is cooling down. But I think for that $25/hour worker — that market is really tight,†Ramsey said.
At least in the Asheville metro area, “the workers who received the highest pay increases during the pandemic were the lowest-paid jobs — because people generally don’t want to do those jobs.
“If you’re a business trying to hire someone at $15/hour, God love you. Because we’re seeing many entry-level jobs in the high teens and low $20s to do those jobs.
“If you look at the housing index in our region, over time, home prices have gone (way) up in our region. There was some downturn during the Great Recession...
“Housing has never been less affordable than it is today. The bottom line is, if we want to moderate housing (prices), we need to increase supply.
“Economically, I think we’re hearing from more and more employers on how housing is a big limitation on them in our region...
“I think that’s (housing shortage) certainly an existential threat for our population,Ramsey then listed the following as “headwinds we're facing:â€
• “Rising interest rates — that’s made it more difficult to add housing supply, more difficult for people to buy homes, more difficult for businesses to expand... You’re seeing the savings many people (especially lower-income) built up during the pandemic are gone.
• “Business closings — the total business impact to the (Pactiv-) Evergreen closing to our region is about $1 billion. The economic impact in Buncombe County... in our region is big. The good news is we’ve still got a lot of businesses out there hiring. In the last five years, we haven’t seen that many closings…
• “Lack of childcare — we have fewer child-care slots today than we did during the pandemic. Today, we can’t spend the subsidy dollars we have because of the lack of childcare workforce. We pay the people to take care of us when we’re young and when we’re old the least of anyone,†which, given the importance of the jobs, he said, strikes him as grossly unfair. “The people who do those jobs are paid poverty level wages....†He added, “Generally, your earnings will be determined by your education.â€
• “Housing affordability — our biggest disparity in wages is in our highest-paying jobs and high-paying sectors, versus, say Charlotte. “I hear that our jobs pay less because of our hospitality sector.
“Again, the greatest driver is those higher-wage jobs...
“If I'm a housekeeper or a server, I want there to be more high-paying jobs, as that will drive the demand for more people like me, and drive up what I'm paid.
“Housing affordability is an economic development issue. If we’re not able to get a better handle on housing, then the people who work here will have to drive here from far away,†Ramsey said, concluding his presentation.
During a brief question-and-answer session that followed, CIBO member Mac Swicegood asked in reference to the Ashevile metro area, “Is there any discussion about adding Haywood to that mix?
In response, Ramsey said, “Technically, the metro — based on the feds telling us — includes Haywood, Buncombe, Madison and Henderson (counties).†He also reiterated that Transylvania County is not included in the Asheville metro area.
Further, Ramsey asserted, “Buncombe supplies about 60 percent of the jobs in the metro, so, in that sense, it’s the driver.â€
He added, “McDowell, Madison and Yancey (counties) will see that growth (too) because of housing prices,†relative to the higher prices in the Asheville metro area.
“So I apologize for that confusion†on what counties comprise the Asheville metro area.
An unidentified man then asked Ramey to expand on his population projections for the Asheville metro area..“So by 2030. we’re expected to add 150,000 (residents) to this (Asheville metro area) region,†Ramsey answered.
He then reiterated, “So if you add the current population of Henderson and Transylvania today — it’s about 150,000 people,†which would give one an idea of having that equivalent number of people move into the Asheville metro area by 2030.
At that point, CIBO President Buzzy Cannady, who moderated the meeting, cut off the questioning to end the meeting, as usual, about 8:30 a.m.
With a smile, Cannady asserted, “To quote our friend, Mac (Swicegood), over there, ‘Let’s go to work!’â€
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