By CECIL BOTHWELL

We are faced today with the imminent advent of autonomous automobiles, known less generically as GoogleCars. While there has been some gee-whiz reporting about the technology itself, I have searched in vain for serious discussion of what this portends for urban infrastructure.

On May 10, I’ll address the subject at TEDx Hickory. The ideas I’m offering here are drawn from that talk.

First the “imminent advent” mentioned above: How soon will driverless cars appear on our roads? 

They’re already here. While they’re only specifically legal in California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada — sometimes “for testing” — the truth is that the car beside you in traffic may already include major autonomous components.

One 2014 Mercedes model handles stop-and-go traffic without driver assistance. More and more cars sport safety radar including automatic braking to prevent rear-ending the car ahead. GPS is now common, and the same computer that tells a human driver how to get from Point A to Point B can just as easily communicate with a robotic navigator.

The GoogleCar has logged hundreds of thousands of highway miles from California to New York without driver assistance. Europe is a step or two ahead of the U.S., and fully integrated radar systems as well as self-parking abilities are becoming standard.

All of today’s systems require a human behind the wheel. But that’s changing fast. In five or so years Google expects to have a model on the market that is entirely self-driving, not just on highways but in downtown traffic. That’s when the rubber really hits the road for urban planning.

Parking cars presents a host of problems for cities. For every car added to our national fleet, we build six parking spaces. Some are short term and many are needed for eight-hour storage, while the owner is at work.

Parking meters are useful because they tend to keep people moving along, to free up space for the next person on a mission. Meters entail enforcement, someone to empty the coins, meter mechanics and tow trucks and all the rest.

For longer term parking, we build garages — expensive to build, to maintain, and to manage. People urinate in the stairwells, leave food containers and cigarette butts, and graffiti is a constant problem. 

With public decks, the cost is compounded because we use valuable downtown real estate for public buildings that pay no taxes. Even when someone decides to invest in a private deck, storing automobiles isn’t likely to be the highest and best use of downtown real estate.

But what if your car can drop you off and then go home to pick up your spouse or children?

What if your car can drop you off and go park itself on cheaper land on the city’s periphery?

And finally, why do you need to own a car at all if you can use your smart phone to call a car when you need it? Or schedule a regular pick-up every morning for work? Or participate in a self-organizing car pool that no longer needs to be responsive to Sally’s overtime on Wednesday and Bob’s dentist appointment on Friday?

Asheville and UNC Asheville just partnered with U-Haul to start car-sharing here. ZipCar systems are common on university campuses and in larger cities. The financial benefit of not owning has wide appeal if there is ready access when a car is needed. Today’s chief problem is getting to wherever the ZipCar is parked. Tomorrow the car comes to you.

Ownership is falling fast. Many young people don’t bother to get a license. In NYC, 56 percent of people don’t own a car. In many major cities, around a third are car-less. Even in Detroit more than a quarter don’t partake in the city’s primary industry.

To those who insist “It won’t happen fast,” I reply: “Go find a phone booth and call me about it. Cellphones wiped out booths in just 20 years.”

Reduced need for parking means more room for sidewalks and bike lanes. An overall reduction in car numbers has huge implications for downtown development and highway planning.

The bottom line? When we are building infrastructure to handle tomorrow’s traffic, we need to ask ourselves, “What if the horse knows the way?”

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Cecil Bothwell is author of nine books including "Pure Bunkum: Reporting on the Life and Crimes of Buncombe County Sheriff Bobby Lee Medford," (Brave Ulysses Books, 2008), and a member of Asheville City Council.