From Staff Reports

 Meteorologist Tom Ross predicted snowfall for Western North Carolina that will be closer to normal this winter during a Long-Range Forecast Seminar on Nov. 8 at A-B Tech’s Ferguson Auditorium.

Among the questions addressed was: “Are these early season systems a sign of a long and harsh winter season?”

The seminar, which drew about 75 people, was hosted by A-B Tech’s Institute for Climate Education.

Ross began his talk by quipping that, “if you get a 50 percent grade in weather — that’s pretty good.”

He added that “we always hedge our bets in weather forecasting” because so many variables are involved.

Ross then reviewed sources for weather information, including Ray’s Weather, based in Boone, and The Weather Channel.

Ross said  Ray’s Weather is a good weather website he likes to use — and that there is “lots of good information” on The Weather Channel, too.

On a lighter note, he said The Farmers’ Almanac is interesting to read and, ultimately, there is always the wooly worm.

“The wooly worm is a great predictor for what’s already happened,” Ross said. “Wooly worms are good for the chamber of commerce of Banner Elk,” where many people are drawn to its annual Wooly Worm Festival.

Taking a more serious tack, Ross said the Asheville Regional Airport recorded 30 inches of snowfall in 2009-10, 21 inches in 2010-11 and only a “trace” in 2011-12. (Asheville’s average snowfall is 16.2 inches.)

Therefore, the winter of 2011-12 was “the only winter without measurable snowfall at the Asheville airport since the airport was was opened in the early ‘60s,” Ross noted.

Speaking in more general terms about the area, the meteorologist said that “the Blue Ridge Parkway is often the dividing line between snow and not.” To the south of the parkway, often the precipitation falls as rain, while to the north, it often falls as snow.

At that point, Ross noted that AccuWeather “is calling for above-average snowfall in our area for this winter.” Specifically, he said the service’s prediction is for “much above” normal snowfall for WNC.

“We’ve already seen Hurricane Sandy and then the nor’easter,” the meteorologist said.

After defining an El Niño as bringing cooler and wetter weather, while La Niña brings warmer and dryer weather, Ross said, “A weak to moderate El Niño” now appears to be impacting the area’s weather.

“The mountain area above 4,000 feet will pick up a lot more snow” than lower elevations, he said. (Asheville’s average elevation is 2,165 feet, but many surrounding areas are above 4,000 feet. Boone promotes the campus at Appalachian State University at 3,333 feet above sea level.)

“So you’ve got to factor in all of this stuff so you can figure out what’s going on” with the weather, he said.

Other factors affecting the local weather include such phenomena as the Arctic Oscillation, a climate index of the state of the atmospheric circulation over the Arctic.

He said that “ocean water covers 70 percent of the earth’s surface, so it’s going to drive our weather.” Ross also noted that the upper air pattern “can change really quickly,” also affecting the weather.

Receiving over 90 inches of rain annually, Transylvania County is the wettest county in the state, he said. In contrast, Buncombe County, which is 30 miles northeast of Transylvania County, receives the lowest precipitation. 

To that end, Ross noted that the area now known as Weaverville was called “Dry Ridge” by the Native Americans because it rained so seldom there.

With the area’s topography, Ross said “low-level cold air is typical.” 

He also noted that the warmest winter on record for Asheville was January 1950, when 60.8 degrees was the average temperature.

Ross said Asheville’s 1950 winter was described as “outrageously warm,” with residents noting the early blooming of flowers.

In contrast, the coldest Asheville winter on record was in January 1977, when 35 degrees was the average temperature for the month.

The coldest January day on record for Asheville was Jan. 21, 1985, when the high was 8 degrees and the low, minus-16 degrees — 41 degrees below normal, Ross said.

The “snowiest” day on record for Asheville was February 1969, when 25.5 inches was recorded.

“Our weather in the first week of November was more like (that of) Portland, Maine,” Ross said.

As for Asheville’s history of Christmas snowfalls, the meteorologist said the city “tends to get a little snow at Christmas-time.”

Turning to predictions, he said, “Last year, we had one snowday. I predict we’ll have a lot more this year.”

Specifically, Rose said, the area “could get a couple four-inch snow events this year, if enough moisture comes up from the Gulf and the cold air is in place.” He predicted “near or slightly above 15 inches of snow.” With a smile, he paused and noted that his “wish forecast” is for “25 inches-plus” of snow for the area.

Ross also predicted “several icing events ... with high pressure going to our north and moisture to come up the spine of the Appalachians.”

During a question-and-answer session afterward, a man asked, “The Weather Channel has started naming winter storms — is that for real or a gimmick?”

“It’s kind of fun, but it’s a gimmick,” Ross replied with a grin. in addressed about 75 people

To another man’s question about his predictions, Ross said, “Some of this is a crapshoot. Just nothing came together last winer to give us a decent snow.” In a normal Asheville winter, “we get at least a couple of snow events.”

Continuing, Ross asserted, “The jet stream is the driver, going from west to east. It’s like a river of water. That’s why weather-forecasting is so” challenging.