Dr. Bill Forstchen

By JOHN NORTH

BAKERSVILLE — William R. Forstchen, author of the bestseller “One Second After,” which tells of the consequences around his hometown of Black Mountain of a fictional electromagnetic pulse attack on the United States, successfully urged a contingent of Mitchell County residents on Aug. 16 to take the first steps that could lead it to be one of the first EMP-prepared communities.

Forstchen, a history professor at Montreat College, spoke about 30 minutes on his book, drawing about 110 people to the Mitchell Courthouse’s courtroom. He fielded questions for another hour, after which he received sustained applause. He finished with a book-signing.

In addition, a brief  film explaining the nature and ramifications of an EMP attack was shown. The program was co-sponsored by the Mayland Radio Club Inc., the Mitchell County Public Library and the Mitchell County Historical Courthouse Foundation.

Introducing Forstchen was program organizer David Hauser, president of the MRCI, who noted that an EMP strike on the U.S., as researched and presented by Forstchen in “One Second After,” could result in the death of 90 percent of the population “and America likely would become a third-world country,” relying on technologies going “back to the 1840s.”

During his presentation, the author-professor asserted, “This is the ideal town to band together. The main things is to start now. Don’t wait for this to happen to begin preparing.”

Toward the end of an often-intense Q&A session, Forstchen said he would field questions for another five or 10 minutes “and then sit down.” He said he would like to see other people stand up and take charge. “I’d like to walk out of this meeting more optimistic than when I walked in.”

Forstchen recounted some previous efforts at EMP preparedness elsewhere that fell through, prompting him to say, “You see, I’m a little cynical about it all.”

Earlier, the professor began his presentation by asserting, “My first question is: Why are you here? It’s a beautiful evening!”

Bill Forstchen’s “One Second After” is billed as an apocalyptic thriller.

Then he asked how many members of the audience were involved in community leadership.

About half of the attendees raised their hands.

However, when Forstchen asked how many elected officials, fire fighters or police officers were present, no hands shot up, prompting some audible murmurs of disappointment from the attendees.

He then told how “One Second After” came to be written, noting that he has been friends for about 20 years with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is now seeking the Republican nomination for president.

One day, when Forstchen was at his friend’s office, Gingrich returned from a meeting and threw down his briefcase in disgust, asking, “When are they going to wake up about EMPs?” Forstchen commiserated with Gingrich, who eventually asked, “Bill, maybe you should write a book on the EMP.” (Forstchen has written around 40 books, including several with Gingrich.) There was talk, he said, that the threat of an EMP attack had no consituency to draw attention to the potential danger.

Going slightly off topic, he joked that someone had once told him that “the problem with the Mayan calendar is you have no constituency.” However, Forstchen quipped, “I do know the secret of the Mayan calendar. The guy was carving it out (of stone) and his boss came along and said, ‘You stupid idiot. You didn’t leave enough space for the rest of the years.’ So the carver just ended it (the world) earlier to fill the space” that was left.

As the crowd laughed, Forstchen said, “So stop worrying about May 2012” being the end of the world, based on some misinterpretations of the Mayan calendar.

Returning to his story about the inspiration for“One Second After,” Forstchen told of driving back from Washington, D.C., and arriving at his Black Mountain home about 1 a.m. “At that time, my daughter (Meghan) was 11 years old. I peeked into her room to see her and I broke down crying,” based on his knowledge of the havoc EMPs could wreak in the United States. “For the next year, I tried to write a book, but I couldn’t quite get the story.

“And then, the (final) inspiration came. As a professor, I was wearing lots of fancy robes” at a graduation ceremony, he said. “The speaker droned on for more than an hour. Its was 90 degrees. I looked at the students and realized it (the EMP book) was about them. So the book came out (in March 2009) and, to my editor’s disbelief, it became a New York Times bestseller.”

With a chuckle, he noted that the book riled up some people in Black Mountain, including the local newspaper (The Black Mountain News), which, Forstchen said, “wrote an editorial, complaining that I made the whole town look bad in the book.”

More seriously, Forstchen said evenly, “Something has changed since the book came out.” For one thing, someone with inside connections told the professor that he is “on a ‘watch’ list” with the government. He also told of someone in Poland who had posted the location of his home on the Internet — in the middle of a target.

At that point, he addressed the audience’s concerns about being prepared for emergencies, such as EMPs or other crises. “I rarely differentiate between ‘survivalists’ and ‘preppers,” Forstchen said. “You are citizens, just folks, like me.”

However, he presumed those present at the meeting were preppers, whom he defined as people who “don’t worry just about themselves, but about everyone else, too.” In contrast, he said survivalists tend to live alone in isolated locales — and are concerned only with themselves.

“Tonight, we’re not just talking about EMPs” and CMEs (coronal mass ejections, which are solar explosions), “we’re talking about survival and being prepared.”

He asked the audience, “What did (Hurricane) Katrina teach us?”

Before anyone could answer, Forstchen asserted, “Do not wait for the Feds ... How many people did we see sitting on top of their roofs with ‘Help me’ signs” after the hurricane hit?

“Suppose we had a national emergency,” would those in attendance be prepared? he asked. With a grin, he noted that, during the big snowstorm last Christmas, “I told my daughter to run out and make a sign to the helicopers above to: ‘Drop cigs and vodka.’” The audience laughed heartily.

The military historian told of a time during the Civil War when it snowed half an inch and Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee told his troops the weather was so bad there would be “no war today.” The yankees, with many New England boys (who were used to rough winters), said, “Charge! Shortly thereafter, the South surrendered at Appomattox.” (Forstchen was born in New Jersey in 1950.)

As for Bakersville, the author said, “This is an ideal town to band together. The main thing is to start now. Don’t wait for this (any disaster) to happen to begin preparing.

Forstchen ended his address by holding up a recently published 122-page manual on preparing for an EMP attack  that, he charged, is deficient in several critical ways. For instance, he said it contains no plan and is unrealistic — perhaps because it was written by a committee.

In opening the question-and-answer session, a man asked, “Are there any communities preparing for an EMP?”

“Yes, Mitchell County, North Carolina,” Forstchen quipped. On a serious note, he said, “You might be one of the first counties in the country that is doing this.”

Another man queried, “What should communities be doing right now?”

“I’d like to see, leaving here, that you guys tell the mayor — or some other community leader” — of the desire “to put together a team of six or eight people” to lead Mitchell County in preparations for an EMP attack, Forstchen said.
In speaking of America’s top enemies, Forstchen added, “The Iranians, on a regular basis, are putting missiles on container ships in the Caspian Sea” and is able to fire them vertically. “The North Koreans are doing it, too.” Recent evidence shows “it fit the same profile as an EMP ... In fact, it’s believed that the smaller the warhead, the more you can juice it up.”

At least with a CME, Forstchen said, “You might get some advanced warning.”

As for organizing, Forstchen retierated that he would like to see a committee formed the night of his talk.

Regarding an EMP attack, Forstchen said, “By the way, perhaps the most important doctor in your town is your veterinarian ... The insurance companies have knocked out our general practioners,” while veterinarians have enough medical supplies on hand — and the knowledge — to be able to treat human beings, too.

“What’s likely to happen to automobiles” after an EMP attack? a man asked.

“We’re not sure,” Forstchen replied. “If you have a car made before 1965, or possibly ‘70, you’re cool. If you have a Prius, trade it in.” The audience laughed at his poke at the so-called “green” car.

The professor noted that an EMP’s strength is variable and “we do know the Chinese are doing research on an advanced gamma ray weapon.”

He added, “If you have an old airplane, like mine, or an old VW Bug, you’re cool ... The only true, real data we have is from the 1960s, before the Test Ban Treaty.”

Somone asked, “How far from the United States would one of these EMP bombs have to be to affect the U.S.?”

Forstchen noted that an EMP attack would be staged above the U.S. and that “an EMP event is a line-of-sight” issue.
He added that CMEs, “as solar flares, can continue on for hours and days.”

In returning to the topic of emergency supplies, Forstchen lamented that, “We don’t make the parts to repair the power grids any more” and, in many cases, they are made by nations that are, at best undependable allies in an emergency and, at worst, would emerge as enemies to the U.S.

Thus, he said, “That’s why you, in Mitchell County, should start getting ready, rather than waiting for something terrible to happen.”

A woman asked how long, after an EMP attack, it would be before electrical service was restored and how could one protect electrical items from being rendered inoperable.

“What you want is a Faraday cage,” a conductive structure that acts as a shield, Forstchen answered. “All of you’ve got a Faraday cage in your houses — it’s called a mircrowave oven.” However, he cautioned that if one stores laptop computers and other components in a microwave, be sure that it is not accidentally switched on.

He added that “80 percent of the electricty-generating system in the Eastern United States would still be down five years” after an EMP attack, according to some projections. “We live in a just-in-time society,” so parts would not be available on a massive scale.

Forstchen also warned of the dangers of “high-tension wires exploding during an EMP — the big ceramic insulators.” On the bright side, “I’m saying 20 percent of the Eastern United States would be up again (with electrical service) in five years.”

After a pause, he said, “I go with the assumption that Mitchell County” would weather such difficulties better than most of the region, as many of its rural mountain residents still have skills carried over from the pioneer days that would help them survive.

Another person asked if buildings could be modified to provide Faraday cage protection.

”Yes,” Forstchen replied. “You know what I’d like to see in your town is a Faraday” the size of a large lectern, “filled with 40 old computers ... If you do it beforehand, you could be saving a lot of lives. You can’t wait till one second after.”

Returning to preparedness, he listed priorities as “getting your community through the first 24 hours,” maintenance of civil order (a period he projected to last several months) and building an emergency stockpile of food in advance.
The history professor added, “You don’t want to be 1941 Leningrad (Russia),” where those who could work or fight (as soldiers) and expectant mothers were given sufficient rations to survive, while others were given faux food mainly composed of wood pulp. As a result, 1.5 million people died of starvation.

With proper preparation, Forstchen said that, instead of the projection of 90 percent of the population dying after an EMP attack, “it could be 10 percent. But we’d still be a nation” reduced to third-world status.

In Mitchell, he said, “We’ve got a lot of hydro (power capability) around here,” with the proliferation of fast-moving creeks and rivers. “A lot of people around here know about survival,” and still hunt, fish and know how to can food.
Forstchen concluded his presentation by stating, “Let me close with this. This is an American town meeting the way it’s supposed to be. I’m going to sit down (now) — you guys figure it out” for the future.

Forstchen received sustained applause from the audience members, most of whom stayed during the entire program, prompting him to state, “We have these resources and we’ll make plans to move forward. Thank you and goodnight!”
Afterward,  David Hauser, meeting organizer, organized a committee that — at that point — included four volunteers beside himself to pursue EMP preparedness in Mitchell. While he acknowledged that no elected officials were present at the meeting, Hauser, said, “We did have the county emergency manager” in attendance.

Regarding the response afterward to launching a group, Hauser said, “I’m overwhelmed. I’m encouraged. ... If town and county officials are not willing to step forward” on the EMP preparedness project, he said his committee will “go ahead anyway.”