Tom Tveidt	James E. Smith

From Daily Planet Staff Reports

The area is experiencing a slow economic recovery and there will be no recession in the next three years, the two economists featured at the 11th annual Asheville Metro Economy Outlook told an audience of around 300 people on July 27 in Diana Wortham Theatre in downtown Asheville.

The free presentation highlighted the latest significant economic trends, including insights on the national and local economies.

Addressing the audience were James F. Smith, chief economist for Parsec Financial Management; and Tom Tveidt, president and research economist for SYNEVA Economics. Parsec is an investment firm. SYNEVA is a private consulting firm that specializes in regional economic analysis.

The Asheville Area Chamber of Commerce event was presented by Parsec.

“Things are better than you see, hear and read,” Smith, a national authority on the economy, told the crowd.

The two men projected a rebounding economy, following the worst downturn since the Great Depression. The economy still is lagging in comparison to where its lofty heights at the start of the recession in December 2007, but it is showing improvement, they said.

“Consumers are miserable, but their incomes were at all-time record levels,” Smith said.

Personal consumption expenditures reached record highs in March, April and May — a a key number because consumer spending in the United States accounts for 70 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, Smith asserted.

Smith noted that he and his fellow economic forecasters predict positive economic growth at the national level for the remainder of this year, as well as in 2011 and 2012. The majority of forecasters also do not expect to another recession in the U.S. in that three-year period, he said. “It’s unanimous. Do not worry about a recession anytime this year, next year of in 2012.”

In addressing the local economy, Tveidt said the recovery also will be improving, albeit slowly. While the Asheville metro area had lost 11,000 jobs at this point last year, he asserted that the job losses have been decreasing. To that end, he said the local economy needs to add 600 jobs to rebound to pre-recession levels.

“You can definitely see there’s a wave of employmentgrowth,” Tveidt said.

A positive aspect of the recession is that it is making housing more affordable for workers and more skilled workers available for employers.

The sectors showing job growth include government, health servicess and leisure and hospitality, he said.

Tveidt noted that job losses are decreasing in hotel and motel room sales, which have increased for five consecutive months.

The sales of existing homes in the Buncombe County is jumping, with the Multiple Listing Service showing a 20.6 percent increase in June 2010 over June 2009. Also, the median price of homes sold increased nearly 10 percent to $217,000.

On a less positive note, Tveidt said the recession likely will put a permanent damper on the number of people who move to the area from others places in the U.S.

Speaking of the national level, Smith said certain occurances — a natural disaster, another terrorist attack, skyrocketing oil prices or the actions of Congress — could thrust the U.S. back into recession.