From Daily Planet Staff Reports

The planet’s population will continue to explode— from about 6.7 billion now to a projected 9 billion people between 2030 and 2050— and limits in food production and distribution systems will result in spot food shortages and price spikes everywhere in the near future, according to sustainability expert Gerard Voos.

He addressed “The Globalization of Food” during a Feb. 16 lecture and later fielded questions in a program sponsored by the World Affairs Council of Western North Carolina. About 60 people attended the session in Owen Conference Center at UNC Asheville.

Voos is the instructor for “A Sustainable Culture,” a Master of Liberal Arts course at UNCA, where he also is the sssociate director of the MLA program, program director of the Environmental Quality Institute, and director of the Office of Sponsored Scholarship and Programs.

He received a doctorate in soil ecology from the University of Rhode Island, a master of science degree in soil science from Colorado State University, and his bachelor’s in agronomy from the University of Kentucky. He also received a post-doctoral fellowship in biogeochemistry at the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory in Aiken, S.C.

Voos noted that his lecture title was conceived by the World Trade Association in the 1990s and that it has not turned out to be the correct description of what has transpired because there is plenty of food in some places in the world, particularly in the developed countries, while famine holds sway in many poor nations.

While “I’m not an economist,” he said, “I’m very interested in sustainable culture,” Voos said.

“If you leave here with any thought, please leave here with the thought that food is a human right. Everybody deserves it ... There’s plenty of food, it’s just not getting around to everyone.”

The U.S. has become “industrialized, centralized and privatized” to the point that “farm communities almost don’t exist in this country any more,” Voos said.

He lamented that America’s agricultural system “has been vertically integrated,” leaving four companies controlling 75 percent of food and they, in turn, determine where they will sell their goods around the world.

The trend is clear, Voos said, as “bigger and bigger companies own more and more.” As a result, “agriculture research now is being done at the company level.”

In the aftermath, a food crisis has resulted, he contended. “All of the industrialization, centralization and privatization caused limits, nonavailability or prices jumps” in the international food supply.

Reasons for the current food crisis, Voos said, involve numerous factor, including the following:

• “Subsidies to farmers in developing countries is the No. 1 reason.”
• Food’s use as a fuel, such as using grain to make biofuel, ranks as “25 to 75 percent of the problem.”
• Poor land husbandry also was faulted, as people attempt to grow food on marginal land.
• Poor trade practices resulting in scenarios where “farmers in some developing countries can’t grow crops as cheaply as they can import it.”
• Weather/climate change, leaving some countries suffering through long-lasting droughts and, in other cases, resulting in a country like Burma, which has historically been a rice exporter, becoming a rice importer as a result of damage sustained from a recent cyclone.
• Speculators further exacerbate the crisis, with investors “getting into the agricultural sector, creating lots of volatility.”

Voos opined that every country has the right to food sovereignty and security, enabling it to protect its citizens “to ensure they have food” and to avoid the dumping of food on their markets, thereby putting local farmers out of business.

He defined security — in this context — as “having enough food.”

In the U.S., “we have (food) sovereignty, but about 11 million people (worldwide) go hungry.”

Voos pointed to problems involving subsidies, smaller farmers and rural flight. “The largest 10 percent of farmers in the United States get 80 percent of the (government) subsidies. They then have a surplus of crops.”

Historically, most of the world has been self-sufficient in producing food. However, if fuel prices go up (again), we’re going to need human beings back in the fields.”

Voos lamented that “ethanol from corn is a boondoggle. The ethanol plants are closing. Through the use of ethanol as a fuel, one is lucky to break even from input to output, since the octane level is 25 percent less than that of octane.
Turning to water, weather and climate change, Voos said “each of these has been a factor” in the food crisis. “There have been wars over oil ... There’s going to be wars over water.”

He added, “In the world, we’re using water for irrigation way too much ... Irrigation can be a good thing — using it to grow food ... If irrigation is done foolishly, it evaporates and it’s wasteful.”

Waxing philosophical, Voos said, “The weather’s alwas going to be with us.”

He then told a joke about the difference between weather and climate. “Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get.”

There is clear evidence that “the globe is warming,” Voos said. “Whether man has accelerated it — that’s another topic and I’m not going to get into it” tonight.

However, he then said, “I think we (mankind) are accelerating it. I think we’re going to create Virginia in Vermont. The grain crop may go up into Canada (from the U.S. Midwest) — that could be serious.

“If it gets too warm, the yields are going to go down. We’re going to have sea level rises. Once you go salt on water, forget it.”

As for energy, Voos said, “Our system is built on cheap, cheap energy and it’s totally dependent on cheap fuel.” He lamented that “agricultural careers are on the downslide,” as many young people growing up on farms opt for an urban job and lifestyle. However, as prices for agricultural commodities soar and higher energy costs stymie urban economies, the looming financial gains offered from farming may interest more people, he said.

“You’ll see your food costs soar” in the near future, Voos noted, adding that already this trend is being noticed in Asheville grocery bills. To that end, he said, “Roadside food stand are — and will be — skyrocketing (in popularty), as consumers seek the lowest prices possible on quality food items.

Other factors that are pushing up food prices that Voos cited are the following:

• Feed lots — 70 percent of U.S. grain goes to feed lot cattle, swine and poultry. Voos suggested, “Let’s (instead) feed it to people so they don’t starve.” He compared the feed lot scenario to that of ethanol, where there is “more energy going in than coming out.”
• Tariffs and dumping — “Let countries do their own tariffs and stop dumping” food commodities on them. “If you dump food in countries, it destroys the market for small farmers,” Voos said.
• Poor planning and food aid — “It’s in every facet of agriculture where corporate culture has” dominated, resulting in crisis.
• Seed — “We are making farmers from third-world countries buy our seeds,” making them dependent on first-world corporations. Historically, “women in villages kept seeds for replanting. We’re selling them seeds that can’t be reused.”
• Sustainable food — “We can do all of this, but we can go much more environmentally friendly,” Voos said. He noted that in areas, such as the Midwest, monoculture — single crop planting — is widely practiced, but to the detriment of a planet with many starving people who would benefit from better practices.
• Permaculture — Under this practice, “everything is in synch. It’s a system of no plowing — and you can get so much more food. Specifically, he asserted, “You can get more food per dollar through monoculture (single crop specialization), but you can get more food per acre in permaculture.”

Speaking more generally, Voos contended that “Cuba has turned it around (agriculturally) through necessity.”
He added that “local problems require local solutions ... We’re going to have to have sustainable local agricultural systems in place” to deal with looming food shortages and related price spikes.

“Everything I say about the United States is happening in the third world and everything I say about the third world could happen here,” Voos said.

He concluded by stating that transparent trade agreements are needed — and “we need to respect that food is a human right. We need sustainability.”