By JOHN NORTH

With the world’s oil reserves at peak, or even past peak, Americans have time —  barely — to figure out ways to develop and convert to other energy sources, retired petroleum geologist John Sticpewich told an Asheville audience last Thursday night.

In a panel discussion, Sticpewich and  local sustainability activist Jim Barton addressed “Peak Oil Perspectives” during a nearly hour-long presentation, followed by a question-and-answer and audience discussion session, at the West Asheville Library.

Around 17 people attended the program, which lasted about two hours.

Sticpewich waved an empty cookie jar to demonstrate that the world oil supply has run out, resulting in the potentially dire consequences of reaching what he termed “peak oil” — the point when the maximum rate of petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters a terminal decline. At peak oil, if global consumption is not mitigated, the theory says an energy crisis may develop because the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise.

Sticpewich said performance-related pay in the petroleum industry, in which chief executive officers received a bonus based on certain oil reserves statistics, resulted in “a lot of imaginative number work.”

In his own experience in the industry, there were times when “I was asked to sign off on reserves — and I refused.”

The CEO bonus incentive resulted in what Sticpewich termed a “growing gap” between regular conventional oil reserves and companies’ estimates.

As the gap became obvious, companies had to revise down their reserves. For example, he noted that Shell Oil recently dropped its reserve estimate by about 30 percent.

He stressed that an estimate of oil reserves is “not a solid number — it’s a calculation worked out on averages.”

Sticpewich cited Energy Information Administration data from September 2007 to explain “how the figures got exaggerated ... The projection is based on figures that, we’re pretty sure, are exaggerated by about a third — ouch!”

“So we are at, or just past, peak oil,” he said. “The evidence is very strong that we are. This only goes to September 2012 — that’s not very far away.”

Sticpewich noted that “OPEC said they’re not going to meet again until September and they’re not going to increase their production ... One explanation might be that they’ve reached their capacity.”

“Having watched OPEC for a number of years, they’re not just doing it for no reason ... They’re probably the most experienced oil marketers in the world.”

He added, “So, we do have time, but we don’t have long, to come up with alternatives to oil.”

One option, Sticpewich suggested, “is nuclear” energy. “It can help us bridge the gap, but I don’t think it’s a panacea.

“I go back to my original statement — the cookie jar is empty.”

Speaking second, Barton, who noted that his talk would focus on “today’s world,” said he had read an editorial in The New York Times earlier in the day about “our world food crisis.”

He said the editorial noted that one of the reasons for the food crisis “is we’re beginning to convert food crops to biofuels, driving up food prices.”

Barton then showed a slide of what he termed “an ideal city,” in which “instead of grass in the front yards, there’s garden’s with food for people to eat.”

He prompted laughter from the audience when he joked that, “under this style, the Staples tower” could become a clocktower.” (His reference was to the controversial office supply store on Merrimon Avenue).

“I’m serious,” Barton said. “It’s not just about self-sufficiency,” a theme from the 1960s and ‘70s back-to-the-Earth movement, but about frugal, thoughtful management of increasingly scarce natural resources.

He cited Rob Hopkins, a permaculture teacher, who began tackling peak oil by coordinating an energy descent action plan with his students for Kinsale, Ireland, where he was living and teaching.

The resulting document received much interest from around the world and has since given rise to the Transition Towns movement — a rapidly spreading, community-led approach to peak oil planning.

Hopkins “believes town’s should come up with an energy dissent action plan,” Barton said. “We don’t have a food security plan for Asheville — that would be a good thing.”

Potential elements of the EDAP, which Barton said Asheville needs, would include food, energy, transportation, tourism, youth, economy, health and waste treatment.

Hopkins said Asheville, with 70,000 residents, should set up a steering committee to “raise awareness” of the peak oil crisis.

“I’m not sure even that the majority of people at Greenlife (grocery) know about peak oil — and certainly not at Ingle’s,” Barton said, as some in the crowd laughed.

“Peak oil started with discussions and going straight into denial and then despair,” he said. “Rob Hopkins tends to be positive  in this – and I like that ... It is important to be optimistic. It does shape the gameplan.”

In reviewing Hopkins’ ideas, he noted steps in organizing a EDAP, including organizing “a great unleashing,” form subgroups, use open space at conferences, “develop visible practical manifestations of what you’re talking about” and “facilitate the great reskilling.”

Regarding the last point, he said, “Our great-grandparents, for many of us, lived in the age before oil. They possessed many skills,” including the ability to grow crops, process food and even take care of horses.

“There was a reflowering of these skills in the mid-’70s. I think this went away because (President Ronald) Reagan made a deal for cheap oil from the Saudis. I think people felt the self-sufficiency movement of the mid-’70s was stupid. There wasn’t a sense of now in peak oil....”

As an example of the kinds of changes needed in response to the approaching food crisis coupled with peak oil, Barton suggested that Asheville needs to be a movement “to allow people to keep chickens in their backyards.”

To that end, he said EDAP proponents need to “build a bridge to local government” to make progressive changes.
Barton also advocated honoring the elderly, noting that there is much to be learned from them because “in the ‘40s, air conditions was not ubiquitious” and they learned ways to cope that may benefit today’s society. He also lamented that a trolley system, which used to operate in Asheville, was scrapped long ago.

He praised Hopkins for whom he paraphrased as saying, “I’m not going to fly anymore, as an ethical stand.”

Barton said Hopkins’ new work, “The Transition Handbook,” will be available in two weeks at the Pack Library in downtown Asheville. The books includes sections titled the head, the heart and the hands.

In the head section, Barton said Hopkins talk about peak oil in the same way as did Sticpewich.

In the heart portion, he discusses the psychological steps that people go through when embracing the peak oil theory, including denial, rage, depression, bargaining and acceptance.

In the hands, Hopkins discusses what can be done. Regarding the city in which Hopkins lives, Barton said, “Like Asheville, there’s a lot of alternative energy in Kinsale, Ireland.”