From Staff Reports

Fox News contributor Michael Barone said the field is open for candidates in the 2008 president election and, for the conservatives to win, they need to seize the moment and dominate in framing the issues, during an address last Thursday in Asheville.

Barone, who also is a senior writer for U.S. News & World Report, a political scientist and an author, addressed ìOpen Field Politics 2008î in the banquet hall at Haywood Park Hotel, located downtown.

Almost 100 people attended the Headliner Luncheon sponsored by the John Locke Foundation and WWNC-AM (570) news-talk radio station in Asheville.

Barone spoke for 45 minutes, fielded questions from the audience for about 15 minutes and stayed later to sign copies of his latest book, ìOur First Revolution: The Remarkable British Upheaval That Inspired Americaís Founding Fathers.î (A story on the question-and-answer session appears on Page 7.)

During his collegiate days, he was editor of the Harvard Crimson student newspaper and, later, the Yale Law Review. He earned a law degree at Yale. He is a native of suburban Detroit, Mich.

Barone was introduced by master of ceremonies and JLF official Chad Adams, who termed the foundation ìthe largest independent think-tank in North Carolina.î

The JLF, a free-market think tank launched in North Carolina in 1990, advocates lowering taxes, decreasing spending on social support programs and encouraging free markets.

It is named after the philosopher John Locke, who was a primary contributor to what is now termed classical liberalism.

Barone began his address by thanking the JLF and WWNC radio station for their co-sponsorship, the latter of ìwhich, I gather, stands for Wacky Western North Carolina.î The crowd laughed heartily at his quip.

He then said he was taking a poll and asked the mostly conservative audience members to raise their hands to indicate their television network news sources.

Predictably, no hands were raised when he called out, successively, MSNC and CNN.

However, when he referred to Fox News Channel, nearly all hands darted into the air, prompting Barone to declare, ìAh, for once, the fair and balanced news channel!î

After praising British philosopher John Locke (1632-1704) for his contributions to freedom, he said ìthe 1680s were a time of political change ... and weíre in a time of political changeî today.

For the first time, there is a woman and a black who are both serious presidential contenders, Barone said. ìThe parties are trying to redefine themselves.î

Polarization of politics today.... He said the Democratic presidential candidates all are positioning themselves to the left of Bill Clinton, whom he termed the only successful Democrat to win the top post in the last 25 years.

Both Clinton and President Bush were born in the same year, Barone noted.

ìHow many people here canít stand to see Bill Clinton on TV?î he asked. Many hands shot up. ìIf you went on the hippie side of downtown, itíd be the same answerî if the residents were asked about Bush.

Barone said the period of 1996-2004 could be characterized as ìtrench warfare politics,î featuring much polarization.

He added that the period of 1980-95 could be characterized as ìopen field politics,î meaning ìitís going to be a tough year for the overdog.

ìWe have the potential for that to happen in 2008,î Baroke said.

He said Clinton leads the pack of Democratic contenders, followed by Barack Obama, 24 percent; and John Edwards, 12 percent. ìIt looks like Hillary Clinton has an excellent chance to win the Democratic nomination.
ìIf Obama runs well against Clinton in Iowa, the race could open up with Clinton and Obama.î

In contrast, he said ìeven if Edwards does well in Iowa, heíll fade in New Hampshire,î based of that stateís historical dislike of Southern candidates.

As for the Republicans, Barone again held an impromptu poll, with Rudolph Giuliani, the front-runner, getting one-fourth to one-third of the votes; followed by Mike Huckabee with about one-fourth of the hands raised, Mitt Romney with about six votes and Fred Thompson, with about three votes. John McCain got no votes.
ìThe conventional wisdom of Giuliani is that he has no chance because of his relatively liberal position on cultural issues.î

However, Barone said, ìI take a different viewî about Giuliani. ìWe always ask how someone would do in a crisis ó we know about that with Rudy. He also has an outstanding record in New York.î

When Fox News, in a poll, asked which candidate would do a better job of protecting the United States, Barone said Giuliani received 50 percent support, while Hillary Clinton got 36 percent.

Still, to date in the presidential election, ìI think I have to concede that advantage goes to the Democrats. I donít think George Bushís approval ratings, which are at a record low, will rise appreciably in his final days.î
In 2008, ìthe perceptions are the Democrats will hold a majority in Congress ... I think what weíve seen is the world in which Democrats won is changing and I donít think theyíve changed.

ìWith Democrats leading Congress, we still havenít left Iraq. Weíve got three leading Democratic contenders decliningî to state a specific short-term withdrawal date, Barone said.

ìThe surge strategy is beginning to work,î he noted. ìIf Iraq is seen as a stalemate or withdrawal, most people would vote for withdrawal. But if itís success versus withdrawal, I think theyíd vote for success.î

He asked, ìHow many of you remember the ë70s?î

Most hands were raised in the generally older crowd.

At that point, Barone contended, ìthe median-age voter in 2008 doesnít remember the 1970s.î Born in 1963, the median voter got his driverís license in 1979.

Thus, these voters do not remember stagflation, Keynsian economics and gas lines, he noted.

In essence, ì2008 is a battle of ideas, a battle of who will frame the issues ... He who frames the issues tends to decide the election.î

He then noted that the Bush tax cuts will expire in 2010 and the estate tax will return in 2011.

When Barone asked how many of those in audience have been watching the polls in Great Britain, a dozen or so hands were raised.

To that end, he said Gordon Brown of the Labor Party became prime minister recently, succeeding Tony Blair. Brown was so popular, the word was out that he would call for an election so that he could get a five-year term, Barone said.

However, the Conservative Party cut out the inheritance tax and surged from behind to lead the Labor Party by 5 percent in the polls. ìThatís substantial,î Baroke said. In the aftermath, Brown decided not to call for an election.

ìThat tells me the Republican Party could do the same with the same issue ... Basically, if we have a Democratic president and Congress, the taxes for everyone will go up ó thatís a given.î

He said another issue ìmight beî immigration for which ìthe Democrats might get in trouble by using the same approach as George Bush.î Barone said a better approach on immigration is to withhold legislation for a guest worker program until there is enforcement of policies at the border.

Again, he reiterated, immigrationî has not proved to be a winning issue for Republicans in 2006.î

However, Barone cautioned that ìpeople donít like the idea of ëI donít like that kind of people,í but they do like ëwe should be enforcing current (immigration) law.î

He reiterated several times in his speech that ìyou canít count on the mainstream mediaî† for truthful reporting on political issues.

As for taking positions on the economy, Barone said it comes down to partisan preference.

The median-age voter has lived most of his/her adult life with steady growth and low inflation, so ìI donít think the economy is a winning issueî for Republicans, Baroke said.

On the issue of national defense, he said, ìAgain, the world doesnít stand still.î Neither, he added, do the polls or the results remain static.

ìToday, we donít know what will happen in the world in the next 13 months.î

However, ìto listen to the Democrats, if we get Bush back to Crawford (Texas) and leave Iraq, everything will be fine and the world will love us.î

To the contrary, the GOP needs to frame the partyís position in the election as: ìWeíre protecting the nation from people would harm us.î

Alas, ìthe mainstream media is not going to make the nation a key issue. Theyíd say we get what we deserve.

ìThis year, in what I think is a period of open-field politics ... I think the side we believe in could suffer a very damaging defeat ... We also could have a victory in 2008.î

ìThereís an open field for these new voters and itís up to you ó and these (GOP) candidates ó to try to influence them at this time.î†