By JIM GENARO

Human beings will adapt to climate change ó the question is whether that adaptation will be planned or not, according to Dr. Leonard Bernstein.

Bernstein, a member of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and convening lead author for that panelís Fourth Assessment Report, discussed human adaptation to climate change† at a masters-level Climate and Culture class at UNC Ashevilleís New Hall last Thursday evening. About a dozen people attended.

Adaptation is inevitable, he said, because the effects of global warming will continue for centuries, even if humans get carbon dioxide emissions under control now.

ìNot only have we changed (the climate) in the past 100 years, but weíve built in change for the next two, three, four hundred years,î Bernstein told the class.

Plants and animals can adapt to fluctuations in temperatures and weather, but cannot adapt to extreme weather variability, he said.

Humans, on the other hand, can migrate or mitigate the effects of climate in other ways.

Bernstein added, however, that humans are generally unprepared for extreme weather conditions.

ìJust look at the chaos that Hurricane Katrina caused and the kinds of death tolls that hurricanes in less-developed places cause.î

He noted, for instance, that Hurricane Mitch caused roughly 10,000 deaths in Nicaragua and caused that countryís gross national product to drop by half.

ìThere are many, many instances of significant loss of life, of significant loss of property because weíre not adapted to hurricanes,î Bernstein said. ìWe probably never will be.î

However, he said, planned adaptation is possible and ìcould even be profitable,î given the devastating costs that can result from not planning.

One challenge to planning ahead for adaptation is a lack of good cost-benefit studies, Bernstein said. ìWeíre woefully lacking in this area,î he added.

Bernstein said that the mild hurricane seasons this year and last were largely due to El NiÒo† ó a global oceanic phenomenon that results from fluctuations in sea temperatures and affects hurricane frequency and intensity.

Nonetheless, he said, global warming is ìintensifying the hydrological cycles,î meaning more water is being evaporated ó contributing, inevitably, to more hurricanes and floods.

However, Bernstein added, global warming can also result in droughts because more water is being evaporated and areas of intense rainfall can shift, leaving previously wet climates suddenly dry.

This can also lead to shifts in the patterns of disease-bearing organisms, he told the class. For instance, he said, some areas that have not traditionally seen outbreaks of malaria might start to get them as mosquitoes move in.

Meanwhile, areas that have had malaria might see declines in cases as temperatures fall to levels that are inhospitable to mosquitoes.

Nonetheless, Bernstein said that while global warming will have catastrophic effects ó especially in the developing world ó it will not be as bad as some alarmists fear.

ìI do not believe that climate change threatens the existence of humans on earth,î he said. ìThatís ridiculous.î

However, he added, the costs in terms of property damage will be massive.

What is needed, Bernstein argued, is a ìplanned retreatî from coastal areas as sea levels rise and hurricanes intensify.
Unfortunately, he added, this is not what is happening. Rather, people are moving to the coast at a rapid pace.
Proper planning is essential to minimize the damages of climate change, Bernstein said.

However, there are some significant obstacles to this planning.

First, there is a lack of knowledge about the costs, benefits and techniques involved in preparing for climate change.
Secondly, he said, ìgovernments are much better at responding to problems than avoiding them.î

This is exacerbated by the fact that many choices which are politically attractive are not the best decisions for the long term, he claimed.

For instance, Bernstein said, the U.S. government should not be rebuilding the sections of New Orleans that lie below the water line. But it was politically necessary for President Bush to go to those areas after Hurricane Katrina and vow to rebuild them.

While there have been few studies undertaken to assess the costs involved in preparing for climate change, one recent report had what Bernstein said were some of the most realistic numbers he has heard yet.

The study looked at the costs of adaptation from now until 2030. According to Bernstein, the studyís authors determined that to mitigate the damage of climate change, the world would need to spend between $50 billion and $170 billion per year by 2030.

ìThese are numbers I can believe,î he said, noting that the higher figure seems more realistic than the lower one.
He noted that often, adaptation can be ìsynergistic with development objectives.î

For instance, reforestation can help improve water management and reduce CO2 emissions.

However, more often, ìadaptation involves tradeoffs with mitigations.î

Air conditioners, for instance, make homes cooler while contributing to warming outside, he said.

He closed by saying, ìIf thereís one thing I want you to come away with tonight, itís that we have to adapt. But we canít just adapt.î